Risk Management: Weekly Betting Picks for Air Force, Army, and Navy Football

Army West Point (88.4% win probability)

Army (3-2) is currently sitting as a 15 point favorite in their match-up on the “road” against San Jose State (0-5). It’s technically a “neutral-site” game, but I would hardly count Levi’s Stadium as neutral, though I’m not sure how many fans will be in attendance regardless. San Jose State is 2-3 against the spread this season, and their two “wins” were covering a 43-point spread against Oregon and covering against a Hawaii team that is playing better at home than on the road. Army, on the other hand, has only lost against the spread one time this season in a week one game at Duke where the Black Knights were still discovering their offensive identity. While the trip out west for Monken’s squad is a slight cause for concern, I still don’t see the Spartans hanging with the Black Knights for very long. I also think that Army will come close to the over on their own and will only need the Spartans to put up 10 on the scoreboard to make it happen.

Army (-15) - Minor Risk

Over (51.5) - Minor Risk

Pick- Army 42 San Jose State 20

Air Force (27.8% win probability)

Air Force (2-3) is currently a +11 underdog when they travel to San Diego State (4-1) for a Friday night game. The Aztecs only loss of the season was in the season opener against a Stanford squad that was perhaps playing their best ball of the season in September. Both teams are coming into the week with a high level of confidence after the Falcons defeated fellow service academy rival Navy and the Aztecs won on the road against preseason MWC favorite Boise State. One thing has proven common in both teams’ history so far this season as the two teams have combined to hit the under in six of eight tries. One would think that would mean the under is a must place bet this Friday, but Vegas has clearly taken note. The 43.5 O/U point total is the lowest for both teams this season and, for that reason, I believe these two are in for a higher scoring affair led by a comfortable San Diego State win. This is one of the better G5 matchups of the weekend, and especially since we get it on Friday night, I would recommend tuning in and maybe wagering a few bucks.

San Diego State (-11) - Minor Risk

Over (43.5) - Moderate Risk

Pick - San Diego State 35 Air Force 21

Navy (32.3% win probability)

Navy (2-3) is currently a 7 point underdog at home as they host AAC foe Temple (3-3) on Saturday. Navy has struggled against the spread this year, having only covered one time in 2018 in an upset win at home against Memphis. This is usually a game that Navy would be favored at home as they have been historically dominant at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, but recent outings have forced Vegas’ hand. This is a game I would stay away from because it still wouldn’t shock me if Coach Niumatalolo found a way to lead this Navy team to its best performance of the year. But, if you forced me to make a pick I would go with a two-score Temple win. Navy just hasn’t shown the level of performance college football fans are used to seeing this decade and it will be a tall task to do so against a Temple squad that is seemingly getting better each week.

Temple (-7) - Moderate Risk

Under (49.5) - Moderate Risk (If you think Temple covers, I would imagine that means the under has to hit, too).

Pick - Temple 31 Navy 17