Army West Point (56.6% win probability per ESPN FPI)
The Army Black Knights will hit the road as underdogs for the fourth time this season when they take on the Eagles of Eastern Michigan. After failing to cover the spread against Duke in week one, Monken’s squad has responded well by covering in their next three road contests and I don’t think this week is shaping up to be any different. The Eagles are only 1-1 at home against FBS competition and they didn’t beat the spread in either contest. All signs are pointing towards an Army win and cover (well, considering the game currently sits at Army +1 those two outcomes go hand-in-hand). Army hasn’t been involved in a game that has totaled less than 48 combined points.
Army (+1) - Moderate Risk
Over (48) - Minor Risk
Pick - Army 31 Eastern Michigan 27
Air Force (23% win probability per ESPN FPI)
The Air Force Falcons play host to the Boise State Broncos on Saturday night at Falcon Stadium - which is a lot better than playing on a blue field if you ask me. Air Force is currently sitting as a +9.5 underdog against a Broncos team that has been favored in every game of the year, even with a 5-2 overall record. I don’t see the Falcons pulling off the upset, but they could certainly keep the game interesting. If you can find a spread where the Falcons get 10 points I would entertain the idea of throwing down a few bucks, but most spreads I am finding are currently sitting at the +9.5 mark. I like Boise’s chances to cover as they are 4-3 ATS this season in a game with not as many points as Vegas thinks.
Boise State (-9.5) - Moderate Risk
Under (58) - Moderate Risk
Pick - Boise State 35 Air Force 21
Navy (2.3% win probability per ESPN FPI)
So you’re telling me there’s a chance? No, really. Well maybe the chances of an outright win are slim, but a 24-point spread is fairly large and service academy football teams tend to do well against the big spreads. If you buy into that hype, that may be even more of a reason to bet on Air Force above, but no reason to stop there - put some money on the Midshipmen then, too! Navy hasn’t lost a “home” game to Notre Dame by more than 24 points since both teams traveled to Dublin in 2012 and technically Notre Dame had to vacate that win, so it’s like it never happened right? Not when it comes to betting purposes anyway, I don’t think you can get a refund for that. Anyway, I will take Navy (yes, the same Navy that is 1-6 ATS) to cover because, why not?
Navy (+24) - High Risk
Over (53) - Moderate Risk (to be honest, if Navy covers that likely means the under hits, so this is kind of hedging my bets)
Pick - Notre Dame 42 Navy 21