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Risk Management: Our Picks for Service Academy Football Wagers in Week 12

Navy and Air Force look to get another win in conference play while Army may be on upset alert against an FCS squad?

NCAA Football: Wyoming at Air Force Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Air Force (53.2% win probability per ESPN FPI)

Another coin flip type game among service academy football this Saturday when the Air Force Falcons travel to Laramie, WY to take on the Wyoming Cowboys in their must-need win to continue fighting for bowl eligibility. The Falcons have covered five of their last six games and have only failed to cover as underdogs one time this season - a loss on the road against a solid Utah State team. The Cowboys have only covered at home one time this season and are 2-3 ATS as favorites in 2018. All signs point to a Falcon cover and a possible upset (at least in the eyes of Vegas, while ESPN FPI favors Air Force).

The O/U is too low for my liking as it is the lowest Wyoming closing O/U on the season and Air Force’s second (only game that closed with a lower O/U was at 41.5 against Army). I don’t suspect this game to be a high scoring game, but I do think both teams contribute their part to push the total over 42.

Air Force (+2.5) - Moderate Risk

Over (42) - Minor Risk

“Upset” Pick - Air Force 28 Wyoming 24

Navy (57.2% win probability per ESPN FPI)

The Navy Midshipmen (2-8) find themselves as favorites for the first time since hitting the road to take on Air Force. Interestingly enough, the Midshipmen will be home favorites for the first time this season against FBS competition in what will be their final game in Annapolis in 2018. Navy has covered the spread in 2 of the last 3 games (as underdogs obviously) and will be taking on a Tulsa squad with an identical 2-8 record overall. Tulsa is 1-3 against the spread in its last four games with its one win covering against UConn. Considering Navy is favored by 5.5 points here, I like Navy’s chances of winning this game on Senior Night by at least a touchdown thus snapping a seven-game losing streak.

Both teams have struggled offensively this year. Aside from the win over UConn, Tulsa is averaging 20 points per game while Navy averages just 22 points per game against FBS competition.

Navy (-5.5) - Moderate Risk

Under (52.5) - Moderate Risk

Pick - Navy 31 Tulsa 21

Army (87.8% win probability per ESPN FPI)

Army West Point is currently sitting just outside of the AP and Coaches Polls, yet this match-up against FCS Patriot League Colgate has some Black Knight fans on edge. Colgate enters the week 9-0 and 8-1 ATS allowing an average of just three points per game. Yes - three or 3 or “2+1.” Army has failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games, including to another Patriot League member, Lafayette, last week. All of this leads to a fairly intriguing game this season. No doubt Colgate will look to stay undefeated and this may end up being their biggest game of the season. While I expect Army to pull out the victory, covering the 11 point spread may be a challenge. Why? Exhibit A:

September 22, 2018: Colgate 45, Lafayette 0

November 10, 2018: Army 31, Lafayette 13

Yeah, I know the transitive property sucks, or is this the distributive property? Whatever. Truth be told, I wouldn’t bet on this game at all.

This O/U is also super low, but you all you need to do is look at both of these team’s defensive performances this season to know why. Army has mastered the 10-minute drive this season, thus reducing opponents’ points per game. Colgate has played consistent defense all season giving up only three touchdowns all year. The Black Knights are easily the toughest offensive task Colgate has seen all year and I think that will ultimately hurt their defensive season stats.

Colgate (+11) - Moderate Risk

Over (37) - Minor Risk

Pick - Army 27 Colgate 17