Navy (4.3% win probability per ESPN FPI)
Navy is not only 2-7 on the year, but they are also 2-7 against the spread. That makes Navy a tough pick any week when it comes to choosing them to cover. What makes it even more challenging this week is the fact that Navy has to travel to Orlando to take on the 12th ranked UCF Knights. Saturday’s game marks the fourth straight time the Midshipmen are double-digit underdogs in a row. Navy has one cover in that four game span when they covered the 22.5 point spread against third-ranked Notre Dame by .5 a point. Against my better judgment I think Navy manages to cover the 23.5 spread this weekend because of UCF’s poor defense. While Navy will struggle to stop UCF while on defense, I do think they will manage to have some offensive success and an efficient fourth quarter will make the final score closer than expected. When it comes to points, I expect a lot of them and so does Vegas with its 63 total points as the O/U. Why not think Navy manages to score some TDs along the way?
Navy (+23.5) - Moderate Risk
Over (63) - Moderate Risk
Pick - UCF 45 Navy 24
Air Force (81.2% win probability per ESPN FPI)
Air Force suffered a heartbreaking loss last week at West Point eliminating any hopes of earning the CIC Trophy this season, but the Falcons look to bounce back at home in a MWC game against New Mexico. Air Force is currently 5-3-1 ATS this season and they have only failed to cover the spread at home one time this season. New Mexico is 4-5 ATS and 3-2 ATS on the road. While Air Force should win outright, the spread trends make this game a tough pick and a lot of it will depend upon how Air Force responds following the recent emotional letdown. New Mexico has hit the over in 7 of its 9 games this season.
I like Air Force to show up and cover while hitting the over.
Air Force (-13.5) - Moderate Risk
Over (57) - Moderate Risk
Pick - Air Force 38 New Mexico 21
Of note, there are no betting lines listed on Vegas Insider or Odd Shark for the Army vs. Lafayette game.