Risk Management: A Bettor’s Guide to Service Academy Football Week 5

Risk Man-age-ment (noun): the forecasting and evaluation of financial risks together with the identification of procedures to avoid or minimize their impact.

Well, there you have it. It is time to hedge your bets this weekend on service academy football and we have your back!

Army West Point (40.2% win probability)

The Army Black Knights are currently 2-2 and both losses came on the road. Considering they are traveling to Buffalo, NY to take on an undefeated Bulls squad, I can understand the -6 spread in favor of the current MAC leader. However, something tells me that Lance Leipold led squad is a little weary of being the favorites against an Army squad that just took the Oklahoma Sooners into overtime in Norman. In their last three games both Army and Buffalo have covered the spread, so one of those trends will certainly give this week. My prediction is that Army will end up covering and could potentially win straight-up. Buffalo has yet to see a team as complete as the Black Knights and I doubt Army will be intimidated by the “Bullpen” environment after last week’s showing at Oklahoma. The O/U is relatively low at 54.5, but none of Army’s games this season have totaled more than 52 points and I do not expect that trend to change this week.

Picks:

Army (+7.5) - Minor Risk

Under (54.5) - Moderate Risk

Army (straight up) - High Risk, High Reward!

Air Force (69.5% win probability)

The Air Force Falcons are currently 1-2 and 0-1 in the Mountain West Conference. The visiting Wolfpack of Nevada come into Colorado Springs with a 2-2 record and will be playing their first conference game of the season. But let’s be honest, none of that matters when it comes to the spread! Nevada is actually 0-3 against the spread this year against FBS opponents and 0-2 on the road. I don’t see how Nevada keeps this game within a touchdown considering Air Force’s ability to score as the Falcons are averaging nearly 33 points per game and I don’t expect Nevada to match within a touchdown of offensive production. This game has a 38-28 type feel and I like Air Force’s chances of getting back to .500 and covering the spread, as long as they are not looking ahead to next week’s first leg of getting their hands back on the CIC trophy when they host Navy in week six.

Picks:

Air Force (-6.5) - Minor Risk

Over (64) - Moderate Risk (this opened at 67 and the trend continues to decrease)

Air Force (straight up) - Minor Risk