Risk Management - A Bettor’s Guide to Week 2

Let’s face it, if you have spent any time serving in our Armed Forces then you understand how much value the Department of Defense places on risk management. The Department of the Navy uses the term “Operational Risk Management”, Army has the “Composite Risk Management” model, and the Air Force simply refers to its program as “Risk Management.”

Regardless of what it’s being called, the principles are overarching and pretty straightforward. Identify hazards, assess hazards, make risk decisions, implement controls, and supervise.

We are here to provide you some thoughts and opinions so you can make the best decision possible when entertaining betting risks as it pertains to service academy football lines and spreads. This is our first week doing this, so hey, at least we are starting off on the right foot with an undefeated 0-0 record.

We will assess each bet (the Over/Under and the spread) as either low, medium, or high risk, similar to what we do in the services with a risk assessment matrix. Here’s one straight from the Naval Safety Center:

The teams are listed in order of their respective win probability according to ESPN’s FPI for this week’s contests. Up first, the Black Knights.

Army West Point (61.9% win probability)

Army (0-1) is currently sitting as a -9.5 favorite in their match-up against Liberty (1-0). Army is 0-1 against the spread after failing to cover in a loss to Duke in week one, while Liberty more than covered the spread in a 52-10 win over Old Dominion to start the year 1-0 ATS. This game is kind of an unknown as the Army offense uncharacteristically failed to get going (compared to the 2017 season) with multiple fumbles last week in Durham and Liberty surpassed all expectations dropping 50+ with a previously unproven offense. My gut tells me the Army offense will click this week and it will be a high scoring affair settled by one score.

Picks:

Over (58.5) - Moderate Risk

Liberty (+9.5) - Moderate Risk

Air Force (38.4% win probability)

Air Force (1-0) is currently sitting as a +9.5 underdog in Saturday’s affair against Florida Atlantic (0-1). Air Force is 1-0 against the spread in 2018 with their cover against FCS Stony Brook. FAU fell well short of covering against Oklahoma last week, and Lane Kiffin and Co. are looking to rebound at home in Boca this Saturday. The average college football fan has to expect more from FAU after their superior performances towards the end of the 2017 season and their increased success on the recruiting trail, so it would be safe to say they are a good bet straight up at home. On the other hand, FAU had no answers for Navy’s triple option offense in South Florida last year, so I like Air Force having the chance to cover. There is a decent chance this is a high scoring affair pushing 70+ total points, but I trust the Falcons offense to control the clock and the defense should show up with some momentum from their week one shutout and be able to keep the game close through four quarters.

Picks:

Under (69) - Minor Risk

Air Force (+9.5) - Moderate Risk

Navy (14.9% win probability)

Navy (0-1) is currently sitting as a +6.5 underdog in their first conference tilt of 2018 against Memphis (1-0). Navy is 0-1 against the spread after failing to win/cover in a loss to Hawaii in week one, while Memphis easily covered against FCS Mercer. I think the 6.5 point difference is a pretty fair spread as Navy tends to perform well at home and has to improve from their week one defensive performance that gave up 436 yards in the air. I see this game being something like 42-35 or 38-28, which makes the O/U a toss up. If you can find a site giving Navy 7 points, I would like that bet as a push.

Picks:

Over (69) - Minor Risk

Memphis (-6.5) - Minor Risk

Well, there you have it, those are my picks. Keep in mind these picks have no proven track record of success and I wouldn’t value them at all. In fact, I am actually betting a total of $0 real dollars for service academy football this weekend as there is just too much unknown after only one week of play.

I can promise you I made these picks on my own before seeing Bill Connelly’s week 2 college football picks, but the irony is that we actually picked the same results. So if you don’t want to take my word on the picks, take his.

Slack channel convo provided below for proof.