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Risk Management: Army, Air Force, and Navy week 6 betting action

No AAE underdogs this week!

NCAA Football: Air Force at Navy Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Show me the money! All three service academy teams in action under the lights this Saturday.

NCAA Football: Louisville at Western Kentucky Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Army at Western Kentucky

Saturday, October 12 7:00 ET on Stadium

Spread: Army -4.5

O/U: 43.5

As we all know by now, Army snapped a 15-game win streak at home at the hands of Tulane last week. Now the Black Knights will hit the road and re-assume favorite status as a 4.5 point expected winner against the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky.

Since 2017 Army is 3-0 as the away favorite and 4-2 ATS after a loss. In short, throughout West Point’s football rise the last couple of years, Coach Monken usually has his team pretty comfortable in these situations.

Tyson Helton is in his first year at the helm at Western Kentucky which currently holds a 3-2 record. Helton has just one game under his belt as the home underdog, yet he led the Hilltoppers to not only covering the +3.5 against UAB but actually earned the outright win. This came after a disappointing season opening loss to Central Arkansas.

I expect Army to take care of business here and S&P+ favors an Army cover. While Army has yet to put together a flawless offensive game together I do think this game will set the tone for the rest of the year and Coach Monken will have his team prepared to perform well on both sides of the ball. I see a 31-17 type game. Take Army to cover but avoid the O/U.

Picks:

Army -4.5 - Moderate Risk

Over (43.5) - High Risk

NCAA Football: Fresno State at Southern California Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Fresno State at Air Force

Saturday, October 12 7:00 ET on CBSSN

Spread: Air Force -3.5

O/U: 51

Air Force has played well in the state of Colorado with a 3-0 record within state lines and 2-1 ATS. Since 2017, the Falcons are just 5-6 ATS as the home favorite which doesn’t necessarily make you want to throw your money at them and to make matters worse, Air Force is just 5-10 ATS in games following a loss.

Okay, so you read all of those numbers and ask “ehh, do I really think Fresno State covers this spread?” Well, they might. Fresno State is an impressive 6-0 ATS as the away underdog in the last three seasons and they are coming off of a bye weekend. Why is the bye important? Well, with a rest disadvantage Air Force is just 1-3 ATS since 2017. Now, 1-3 in four games isn’t enough to make a decision independently but a lot of the signs point towards taking Fresno State.

But this is where I go against the grain and say I just don’t see it. I don’t have a lot of good reasons except I can’t see the Falcons dropping this game and I seem them winning by more than a field goal. If anything, I like the “over.”

Picks:

Air Force -3.5 - High Risk

Over (51) - Moderate Risk

NCAA Football: Tulsa at Arkansas Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Navy at Tulsa

Saturday, October 12 7:30 ET on ESPNU

Spread: PK

O/U: 54

Vegas Insider shows this game opened with a 2.5 point spread favoring Tulsa. The game has shifted to a “pick ‘em” which makes everything more fun if you ask me.

Since I have used 2017 as the starting point for the other games I decided to do the same look back for Navy. I was quickly reminded that Navy was just 3-10 last year so that heavily impacted any potentially found trend. So instead, I looked at two things. The history of Navy vs. Tulsa and Navy’s history immediately following a win over Air Force under Niumatalolo.

History: Navy is 4-0 against Tulsa since joining the AAC and 3-0 overall at Tulsa.

Air Force: Navy is just 2-4 under Coach Niumatalolo following a win over Air Force.

Let’s face it a win over Air Force in the middle of the season is an emotional ride. How Navy responds and moves forward will be telling. My gut tells me that 3-10 season last year is still on the Mid’s minds and I don’t see them getting caught off guard against a respected Tulsa squad. The O/U has been climbing all week and I think has inched just a little too high.

Picks:

Navy (PK) - High Risk

Under (54) - Moderate Risk