Risk Management: Navy vs. USF, Army vs. Georgia State, & Air Force vs. Hawaii Football Betting Action

Okay, I only went .500 last week and I am not sure I feel too confident about this week either. Navy hosts USF as a two touchdown favorite which is unfamiliar territory for the Midshipmen as of late. Army hasn’t exactly instilled confidence in bettors this season and Air Force is going to get weird by playing football well after midnight.

Let’s look at each game one-by-one and see if you want to throw some money around this weekend.

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Note: I have no hand in the UCF/USF fight but I feel bad for the Bulls here. I just searched “USF mascot” in our image database and the first four images that pop-up are of the UCF Knight...ouch.

South Florida at Navy

Saturday, October 19 3:30 ET on CBSSN

Spread: Navy -14

O/U: 51.5

It appears Vegas has been pretty hard on the Bulls under Charlie Strong, especially on the road. Since Strong took over at USF he has mounted an impressive 4-1 record ATS as an away underdog and I must admit, I think Navy is getting a lot of points here. Sure Navy is capable of putting together a big win but even a convincing win could only show up as a 14-point differential in the box score. Even our dear friend Bill Connelly likes USF to cover, but just barely. The analytics expert favors Navy by 13-points.

When it comes to the O/U I think you have to like the over. Navy has hit the over in three straight weeks while USF has done the same for four straight weeks.

Picks:

USF +14 - Moderate Risk

Over (51.5) - Low Risk

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Army at Georgia State

Saturday, October 19 7:00 ET on ESPN+ (sign up for it here)

Spread: Army -6

O/U: 56.5

As a home underdog Georgia State is just 2-5 ATS under Shawn Elliot’s leadership. The Panthers also post a 4-6-1 record ATS in that same period in non-conference games. Well this is looking pretty easy, just take Army right? Well “not so fast my friends.” Georgia State may have turned the corner in 2019 as evident in their 3-1-2 record ATS in this young season which also includes a 2-0 record ATS at home. Maybe Army has something to tip us in one direction...

Well, Army has failed to cover for three straight weeks and holds just a 2-4 record ATS this year. Monken has led the Black Knights to a 5-5 record ATS as the away favorite and a 14-14 record after a loss since assuming the role as head coach. Safe to say there aren’t many betting stats that suggest Army is a shoe-in to cover and many pundits are actually predicting an upset in favor of the Panthers.

Call it “blind faith” or even “wishful thinking” if you are a pessimist, but I like Army’s ability to win and get the cover here. I just can’t see Army laying another egg after last week’s loss to the Hilltoppers. Give me Army in a 10-point, 31-21 type win.

Picks:

Army -6 - High Risk

Under (56.5) - High Risk (The only way the over hits in this game is if its a shootout and I don’t think that would benefit West Point)

Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

Air Force at Hawaii

Saturday, October 19 11:00 ET on CBSSN

Spread: Air Force -3

O/U: 66.5

Football after dark, folks! It doesn’t get much better than this. What is going to make this evening game even better is that something has to give.

Since 2014, Air Force (.395) and Hawaii (.293) have the two worst ATS winning percentages in conference match-ups out of every Mountain West program. To make matters even uhh, worse(?), Hawaii is just 6-10-1 ATS as the home underdog in the last five years and Air Force is actually even worse as the away favorite in the same years with just a 4-11 record ATS in that scenario. Yeesh. How is this history supposed to help you make a pick?

Well, all four of our AAE podcast contributors picked Air Force to win. Does that help? Look, weird things happen late at night and tend to be even crazier in Honolulu. I would stay away from this game altogether but I will give Air Force the nod and although the O/U is super high why would you bet the under if you are watching football until 2:00 AM? It just goes against the principle of it all.

Picks:

Air Force (-3) - High Risk

Over (66.5) - High Risk