Back-to-back weeks at going .500 and I am starting to think that I am losing my touch. Maybe this week is a rebound, but these Vegas spreads are good y’all. It’s like they know what they are doing over there. Before we dive into my picks, let’s see what SP+ is telling us:
WEEK 9 SP+ PICKS— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 23, 2019
* Brutus 31, Bucky 20
* OU 39, K-State 20
* LSU 34, Auburn 24
* PSU 29, Mich State 20 (I'd feel better about 19-10)
* Michigan 28, ND 24
* Utah 34, Cal 11 (I'd feel better about 24-1)
* Oregon 35, Wazzu 26 pic.twitter.com/RDNHzqIw3M
San Jose State at Army
Saturday, October 26 12:00 ET on CBSSN
Spread: Army -9
The distributive property never works in these situations but I wanted to share a few facts. Tulsa defeated San Jose State last month 34-16, this was a month before Navy defeated the Golden Hurricane 45-17. These facts would suggest that Navy would beat San Jose State by over 40-points. If that is the case (and it certainly isn’t by looking at just these results), one has to like Army’s chances of securing a double digit victory over the Spartans.
But this is where the rubber meets the road: Army is just 2-5 ATS this season and has yet to cover the spread at Michie Stadium. Should we expect anything different this Saturday? This is certainly a game I am staying away from but I think the Black Knights right the ship here and treat their home fans with a two score win around the likes of 35-21. This would push the over - and why not?
Army -9 - Moderate Risk
Over (53.5) - High Risk
Tulane at Navy
Saturday, October 26 3:30 ET on CBSSN
Spread: Navy -3.5
The Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS this year, 3-0 as favorites and 4-0 in Annapolis. Tulane has found success of their own ATS in 2019 going 5-2 with cover failures in both of their losses (Auburn and Memphis) and are 0-2 ATS as underdogs. All signs point towards a Navy cover which is something only few people would believe a short time ago.
Tulane’s biggest win is against a Houston squad that looks less impressive each week (roster changes will do that do ya) but they have found ways to put up big numbers in their wins to include a 42-33 win over Army. I like Navy’s chances to cover here as the Midshipmen defense has not received credit in Vegas and that shows in the under hitting in 3 of their 4 games so far in Annapolis. But honestly, don’t touch this game either.
Navy -3.5 - High Risk
Under (56.5) - High Risk
Utah State at Air Force
Saturday, October 26 10:15 ET on ESPN2
Spread: Air Force -3.5
Another episode of late night Air Force football fun and this time we get to see Troy Calhoun’s defense go up against likely early-round draft pick Jordan Love. The Utah State Aggies are 4-2 ATS this year and 1-1 as road underdogs (a cover at Wake Forest and a 42-6 loss at LSU).
Air Force is 4-3 ATS and the Falcons have covered in two-straight MWC games but hold just a 2-2 ATS record in conference match-ups this season. The Falcons put together their two best games of the year following their loss to Navy and the Aggies have failed to live up to the hype this year. I like Air Force to win this game straight up but it is tough to turn down 3.5 points for the Aggies. Even a field goal win for the Falcons gives you the Aggie cover.
Utah State (+3.5) - High Risk
Under (58) - High Risk