This may be the best week of AAE football all season and poor Justin is going to miss it (hey, reserve duty calls). While most of us are aware this weekend features the first leg of the CIC battle when Air Force visits Navy, a lot of us are also paying special attention to a game that features an improved Tulane squad traveling to the banks of the Hudson to take on the Army Black Knights. It goes without saying that we should all have our TVs stuck to CBS Sports Network from noon until about 7:00 PM (ET), but should you sit back and just enjoy the double header or are you feeling a little frivolous with your cash? I have to be honest with you guys, I am not touching the games this weekend but I am still obligated to share my thoughts because they make me. So, with that selling point - here we go.
Tulane at Army
Saturday, October 5 12:00 ET on CBSSN
Spread: Tulane -3
Army is riding a 15-game home win streak and has found themselves in unfamiliar territory under Monken’s leadership as home underdogs. Since Coach Monken arrived at West Point, the Black Knights have been home dogs just seven times where they hold a 3-4 record ATS and have only been labeled as such just one time since 2016. Safe to say the sample size in this category is pretty small and doesn’t really tip the scale either way.
To make matters even more interesting, Tulane is also entering uncharted territory as the road favorites. Since 2006 Tulane is 3-2-1 ATS as away favorites. Do the math there. The Green Wave have been road favorites just seven times in the last 13 years! Look, it is possible teamrankings.com is just wrong, but let’s face it, Tulane wasn’t a good program until Willie Fritz arrived and that is the struggle with making a pick either way here.
Army as a road dog. What? Tulane as a favorite on the road. Huh? Yep, that’s where we sit today. This game should be close. I mean, Bill Connelly (by way of S&P+ brought to you by another sports media company) is projecting a 27-27 game with a fraction of a point win for Army. It is going to be a great noon game and I suggest you just enjoy it and keep your money in your pocket.
WEEK 6 SP+ PICKS— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 2, 2019
* Man, a lot of lines are REAL close to SP+ this week
* Michigan 26, Iowa 22 (gulp)
* Florida 28, Auburn 25
* Notre Dame 50, BGSU 4
* That Saturday evening slate is ... light pic.twitter.com/hGPEQkHtVI
Army +3 - High Risk (give me the points at home)
Over (44) - High Risk (S&P+ says so)
Air Force at Navy
Saturday, October 5 3:30 ET on CBSSN
Spread: Air Force -3.5
Okay, I said this was going to be a great weekend of AAE football and the Army-Tulane game will serve more than just the appetizer role leading into the first leg of the CIC when the Falcons take on the Midshipmen in Annapolis. “In Annapolis” is the key statement here because Coach Niumatalolo is 4-1 at home against Air Force and that lone Falcon win was a 35-34 final after a missed extra point.
Navy is 6-4-1 as a home underdog ATS under Coach Niumatalolo which is good enough for the second best percentage out of all current AAC teams. Air Force is 12-17 ATS as road favorites under Troy Calhoun’s guidance carrying just a 41% win percentage. The Falcons head coach holds just a 1-5 head-to-head record against Navy in Annapolis.
History points towards the home team winning straight up so you have to like Navy at least covering. Keep in mind they have never lost to Air Force by more than 1-point at home with Coach Ken. Even a three-point defeat would get you a Vegas win. Bill likes Air Force by a 31-30 margin (see tweet above) so we are really only talking about a field goal difference here, another reason to sit back and spend your money on beer and chips. No, not the poker kind.
Navy +3.5 - High Risk
Over (45) - High Risk (45 just seems way too low)