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Risk Management: Army vs. Air Force and Navy vs. UConn

Is there a chance to make any money this weekend?

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 03 Air Force at Army Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The quest for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy hits phase two this weekend when the Black Knights travel to Colorado Springs. While the Falcons can no longer win the coveted prize this year we know they want nothing more than to rain (or perhaps snow…) on Army’s parade. We will certainly let you know if we think you make some money in that game, but let’s first cover Navy’s Friday night contest against UConn.

NCAA Football: Connecticut at Navy Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Navy at UConn

Friday, November 1 8:00 ET on ESPN2

Spread: Navy -27

O/U: 55.5

When was the last time Navy was favored by 27 or more points on the road? Well, from what I can tell, it has never happened. The closest I can find dates back to 2007 where Navy was a 20.5 point favorite when they traveled to Philadelphia to take on current AAC-foe, Temple. Look, this isn’t to say it’s never happened, I just can’t find an example in Odds Shark’s database.

UConn is 4-4 ATS this year and 2-2 at home so, at a minimum, the equilibrium will be no more. If you dig through these stats a little bit more you will notice that UConn is best ATS with Jack Zergiotis in command. Freshman quarterback Zergiotis is expected to get the start this weekend and has led the Huskies to a 3-1 record ATS when he attempts at least 25 passes. Safe to say Zergiotis is UConn’s best chance at winning or, at least, making this game competitive.

Navy is 5-2 ATS this year which includes a 3-1 record as the favorite and 1-0 when favored by double digits. Twenty-seven is a lot, folks. I get it. But, Navy already has three AAC wins this season by greater than 27-points and there is no reason to think Friday night will be any different, especially since the Huskies are the weakest team in American Athletic Conference.

Picks:

Navy -27 - Moderate Risk

Over (55.5) - High Risk

NCAA Football: Air Force at Army Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

Army at Air Force

Saturday, November 2 3:30 ET on CBSSN

Spread: Air Force -14.5

O/U: 45.5

Did you know Army is on a five game losing streak ATS and is just 2-6 on the year? To make matters even worse for the Black Knights Jeff Monken’s squad is just 1-5 as the favorites, which thankfully for them this week...they aren’t? Hey, I know it is a weird thing to say out loud, but Army has actually performed its best as road underdogs (small sample size, I get it) and an argument can be made that we could see that again this weekend. Army is 1-0 ATS in that scenario thanks to an impressive showing at the Big House in September.

Air Force, on the other hand, is on a three game winning streak ATS and is 5-3 in 2019 (almost the complete opposite of their New York counterparts). At first glance 14.5-points may seem like a big spread, especially for a contest between two service academy programs. A deeper dive into this rivalry’s history, however, suggests that difference is up to par.

Eight of the last ten contests have been decided by 14-points or more albeit Army has won the last two straight-up. I have been a believer in Army and their ability to turn things around this season but they continue to struggle. I see at least a two-score victory for the Falcons on Saturday and would encourage you to take any spread that has Air Force as a 13 or maybe even a 14-point favorite, but I would shy away at 14.5. Avoid the spread, take the over (because it’s more fun that way) and enjoy the game.

Picks:

Air Force -14.5 - High Risk

Over (45.5) - High Risk