Risk Management: Betting lines for Navy and Air Force Football

No spread this weekend for the Army Black Knights vs. VMI per Vegas Insider. For those who don’t know, it is a challenge to find betting opportunities on a reputable site for games involving FCS opponents. No spread, no problem. Enjoy the Noon kickoff on CBS Sports Network free of financial concerns!

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Navy at Notre Dame

Sat, Nov 16 2:30 ET NBC

Notre Dame (-7.5)

O/U: (54)

Wowzers. This game opened on Sunday at -11 in favor of the Irish and the betting has shifted pretty heavily in Navy’s favor. That’s not to say that the oddsmakers didn’t know what they were talking about, but the CFP Committee has given the Navy Midshipmen some love and it looks like that may be impacting some of those with cash on the line. Let’s find out why...

Navy is 6-2 ATS this season and 7-3 ATS vs. the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in their last ten meetings. Notre Dame is a modest 5-4 ATS in 2019 which includes a 1-3 showing ATS in their last four games.

The computers tend to favor taking Navy here as ESPN’s Bill Connelly “predicts” Notre Dame winning by a final score of 30-26. The Odds Shark computer favors Navy to win outright by a score of 32-31.

I liked Navy at -11 and would certainly take the Midshipmen at -10 if it was still out there. This late in the week I am not sure you will find anything better than -7 which is a line I would probably shy away from. I think the game will be close, but I like Notre Dame’s chances of securing this game by more than a touchdown.

The over has hit in 7 of the last 9 games between Navy and Notre Dame and no reason to think any differently this week.

Picks

Notre Dame (-7) - Moderate Risk

Over (54) - Low Risk

Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports

Air Force at Colorado State

Sat, Nov 16 7:000 ET ESPN2

Air Force (-10.5)

O/U: (62.5)

This contest will feature two teams with decent success against the spread this year. Troy Calhoun has his squad at 5-4 ATS but is 3-1 in the last four games with the only failure to cover coming against Army in a CIC game which is always a battle. The Colorado State Rams are also 3-1 in their last four games but just 3-3 ATS as underdogs.

Odds Shark says take the Falcons as they expect a two-touchdown difference (40-26) after four quarters and our friend Bill is feeling the same with a 14-point victory (38-24) for the Air Force Falcons using SP+ metrics.

The challenge here is for the O/U as evident through the spilt via our two respected computers. The average between the two favors the over but I would still stay away from that aspect of the game.

Picks

Air Force (-10.5) - Small Risk

Over (62.5) - High Risk