Army enjoys a bye this week before the Black Knights will travel to Hawaii in their quest for bowl eligibility next week.
Air Force at New Mexico
Saturday, November 23 2:00 ET on ESPN3
Spread: Air Force -22.5
On this week’s podcast I was pretty confident Air Force was going to cover the spread this Saturday just based on how poorly the Lobos have performed this year. When you take a step back and look at their individual results they have only lost by 22+ just two times; a 66-14 loss in week two at Notre Dame and a 42-19 loss last week on the blue turf at Boise State. The Lobos have been more formidable opponents at home keeping losses to Colorado State and Wyoming within two scores.
Even with the recognition of decent competitiveness for the Lobos this season they are still just 2-7-1 ATS and they have yet to cover the spread at home against FBS competition. The Falcons are 6-4 ATS all season and 4-1 in their last five games with the only loss ATS coming against Army in a typically competitive CIC match-up.
With the Falcons’ offensive efficiency and stifling defense I don’t expect the Lobos to stick around too much in this game. While 22.5 points is a lot and there is certainly an opportunity for a late back-door cover with such a big spread I still like the Falcons to pull off a 42-14 type of game this weekend. Give me the Falcons and the over (but don’t touch that part).
Air Force -22.5 - Moderate Risk
Over (55.5) - High Risk (my pick is literally ½ point over)
SMU at Navy
Saturday, November 23 3:30 ET on CBSSN
Spread: Navy -3.5
Vegas likes Navy at home this week in a contest that *could* have AAC title game implications. Memphis currently controls its own destiny in the West division - if they win out, they will represent the division in the AAC Championship game, but if the Tigers slip up against USF or Cincinnati then the winner of this game will be setting themselves up nicely to take over that West representative role. But enough about that - let’s talk about this game specifically.
Simply put, I expect points - lots of points. In the last three weeks the Mustangs have given up an average of 45 points in their last three games which includes giving up a combined 105 points against ECU and Memphis in their last two contests. SMU started 5-0 ATS the spread to start the season and has gone 1-3-1. As underdogs SMU has yet to lose ATS and boasts a 2-0-1 record. Navy is 6-3 ATS and are 4-1 as favorites.
If you were looking for some sort of trend to help you lean one way or another, it is a tough find. SMU performs well as an underdog and Navy manages to take care of things as a favorite. Additionally, if you are into the emotional side of things it is Senior Day for the Midshipmen and that usually leads to a pretty strong Navy performance.
Still, though, it is tough to not take the points for a 9-1 SMU squad that has only one loss at Memphis with College Gameday in the house. I like Navy to sneak out a competitive win, but if I am a betting man I like when you give me SMU and 3.5 points. I have to take that.
SMU +3.5 - Moderate Risk
Over (67) - Moderate Risk <--that’s a lot of points!