Risk Management: Army, Navy, and Air Force football betting action for Week 14

All three AAE teams are in action this week and it will feature the conclusion of the regular season for Air Force. Army and Navy will square off on December 14th and there is still a chance (with a Memphis loss and Navy win) that Navy will compete in the AAC Championship game on December 7th.

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Wyoming at Air Force

Saturday, November 30 2:00 ET on Facebook Live

Spread: Air Force -10.5

O/U: 41

It’s rivalry week and as much as Scott may try to deny it, we have a good rivalry game taking place this Saturday in Colorado Springs when the Wyoming Cowboys travel south to take on the Air Force Falcons.

The Falcons sit at 6-5 ATS this season which features a 3-2 record as home favorites. The Cowboys have featured a slightly better record ATS this season at 7-4 which includes a 2-2 record as road underdogs. So, do these trends really tell us anything? Well, no, not really.

If you are really looking for a crazy trend line, I think I have one for you. Wyoming is 10-0 ATS against Air Force in the last ten contests. Yes, you read that correctly, and in addition to being 10-0 against the spread the Cowboys are actually 6-4 straight up against the Falcons in the same time frame.

When I see a roulette wheel hit 10 reds in a row you better believe I am betting heavy on black on the very next spin - that’s just my style. It also seems logical here as the Falcons have six Mountain West wins and ALL of them are by more than 10.5 points. I know Wyoming is a strong team, but it is time to bet black. Take the Falcons here and the over.

Picks:

Air Force -10.5 - Moderate Risk

Over (41) - Moderate Risk

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Navy at Houston

Saturday, November 30 7:00 ET on CBSSN

Spread: Navy -8.5

O/U: 58.5

Speaking of trends, the Navy Midshipmen are just 1-3 ATS versus the Houston Cougars in the history of this rivalry. The Midshipmen are 7-3 ATS on the year while the Cougars are 6-5 under Dana Holgerson which includes a 1-2 showing ATS as home underdogs. Navy is just 1-0 as road favorites this year, covering in their blowout win at UConn.

Look, Navy has never won at TDECU Stadium but Vegas likes their chances against a Cougars squad that is rebuilding or tanking or something. It is Houston’s Senior Day and there is a chance that Navy rides into this game knowing they are eliminated from AAC Championship contention which could (but, probably won’t) impact their performance.

I think Navy wins this game but 8.5 points could be a stretch in a game which features a little bit of lost emotion and a location where Navy has won. Take Navy straight-up, take the Cougar points and stay away from the O/U.

Picks:

Houston +8.5 - Moderate Risk

Over (58.5) - High Risk (I have no idea what to expect here. If Houston covers it should be a lower scoring game, so I may be hedging here…)

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Army at Hawaii

Sunday, December 1 12:30 (am) ET on CBSSN

Spread: Hawaii -2.5

O/U: 55

Neither the Army Black Knights (5-6 ATS) nor the Hawaii Warriors (6-6 ATS) are owning the spread this year as neither team has a record over .500 in Vegas, but something has to give (well, not really, technically that’s not true).

Traveling to Hawaii from the east coast is never easy and the Black Knights seem to struggle vs. Hawaii as they are 1-3 head-to-head and are winless (0-2) ATS for games on the island: a 31-point loss in 2003 (+28) and a 7-point loss in 2013 (+5.5). These results suggest Vegas isn’t too far off from the end result, but it’s tough to turn down less than a field goal difference when any team from the eastern time zone has a 12:30 AM kickoff time.

I like Hawaii to cover here but would probably stay away from the game entirely. Army needs this win to keep bowl hopes alive while Hawaii may be caught looking ahead for next week’s MWC championship contest against Boise State. If you are looking for a nightcap just spend the money on a couple cups of coffee and stay away for the contest rather than risk it all in an unpredictable game.

Picks:

Hawaii -2.5 - High Risk

Over (55) - High Risk