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Risk Management: Broncos, Bears, and Blue Turf Edition

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NCAA Football: Boise State at Air Force Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Congratulations! If you can read this page it means you have been upgraded to the Against All Enemies retirement package. So drain those 401K’s because these picks are going to make you rich beyond your wildest dreams. Maybe you’re an Air Force fan and you want your very own F-16. Maybe you’re an Army fan and you want to buy a tank. Perhaps you’re a Navy fan and you want your own battleship. Well no matter what types of de-militarized war machines your little heart desires, I’m here to make your wishes come true.

You may have noticed that Austin isn’t writing this week. Well, it’s because they finally let me out of the dog pound to make some picks. He went 3-3 last week: 2-0 taking Navy and the over vs. ECU, 0-2 on the mighty Air Force Falcons in their win over Colorado, and he split his Army picks with a win on Army and a loss on the over. He’s now 5-3 on the season and that’s nice, maybe 2 wins over .500 gets you a week in a timeshare in Boca, but I’m putting you in a private jet by Sunday.

Air Force at Boise State

Friday, September 20th/ 7:00 PM Mountain/ ESPN 2

Spread: Boise State -8

O/U: 55

The birds took down Mel Tucker’s Buffs in an inspiring fashion last Saturday in Boulder and covered the spread. Going into OT at 23-23, the 58 point over was so close you could taste it. Kade Remsberg crossed the goal line with a 25 yard run on the first play of the drive to go up 30-23, but Steven Montez just didn’t have the Rocky Mountain oysters to tie the game to hit the over.

Air Force is 2-0 against the spread this season and Boise State is 2-1. Looking at Boise State’s past performance is tough to conclude anything in that regard because they had a surprising win as 6.5 point dogs over FSU to open the season, but they only beat Marshall 14-7 as 14 point favorites. They dismantled Portland State to cover -34.5, but the factor going into Air Force is that this will be the first matchup that is truly supposed to be somewhat close as the favored team for the Broncos.

Friday night on the smurf turf with two undefeated teams capable of scoring a lot of points makes me confident in the over. Hank Bachmeier is gunslinger who has thrown 110 times this season. He’s had four passing touchdowns, but he’s also thrown three interceptions, which could give great field position to Donald Hammond’s offense for scoring opportunities. I do worry about Air Force running down the clock against Boise State in a way that they haven’t dealt with up to this point, but there should be enough volatility to make this a shootout.

As far as the spread goes, Air Force is hotter than they’ve ever been. Taking Colorado into overtime and winning as well as humiliating Colgate means they can certainly win in different scenarios. I see this game being close, six points or better for the Falcons, if not an outright win. If you can get this line at +8 or better, Air Force is a lock.

Picks:

Air Force +8 - Risk: AAE LGM-30G Minuteman III Nuclear Lock of the Week Brought to you by the Minot AFB DFAC

Over 55 - Risk: Go ahead and order guac at Chipotle, yes, I know it’s extra, but it’s also payday

NCAA Football: Boise State at Air Force Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Morgan State at Army

Spread: Army -49.5

O/U: 58.5

Let’s say you’re on a nice little work trip to Las Vegas. It’s for some conference in a hotel and it only lasts for one afternoon, but you have a way with words and convinced your boss it needs to be expensed for the whole weekend. You show up and you’re eating your way through all of the $9.99 buffets off the strip, but you want to have some extra coin, maybe to enjoy a nice meal of some A5 Japanese Wagyu at Nobu inside of Caesars. You’ve already cashed your ticket from my Air Force picks, but now you’re hungry for some more service academy action. Unfortunately, you won’t find this game on the board at the Aria. You won’t even find this at any reputable sports book. These picks are for the discerning gentleman who takes his action to the Caribbean on weekend trips.

If you can find these lines on Army vs. Morgan State, I personally hate it. But I make winners, not excuses. Army’s pace has been terrible this season. They couldn’t cover when Rice was unexpectedly good in the season opener, they kept Michigan close for a cover, and they squeaked out the cover over UTSA last weekend by a point. Morgan State has been terrible this season, though. Alabama has intramural flag football teams on campus that could beat those poor guys. They’re 0-2 against the spread and have been outscored 109-15 against Bowling Green and JMU.

I haven’t really seen anything that would indicate that Army has what it takes to cover, but I also haven’t seen anything that would prove that Morgan State can beat an egg. Kelvin Hopkins Jr. didn’t play last week and I don’t see him getting much action, if any, this week. Following this game, Army has a week off until Tulane, so I could see Army playing conservatively and playing backups. Then again, it’s the second home game of the season and Army fans would love nothing more than to see an FCS team end up in a Hudson Hurt Locker. Against my better judgement, I have to go with my gut. Army makes a statement and annihilates Morgan State and covers. Picking the under would just be hedging, and I want to say I don’t do that, but I could legitimately see Army putting up 55 and Morgan State gets a single field goal.

Picks:

Army -49.5 - Risk: Go ahead and buy that game worn Kell Walker jersey, but keep the receipt just in case

Under 58.5 - Risk: Soft lock of the week brought to you by the US Disciplinary Barracks Halfway House located in scenic Fort Leavenworth, Kansas

Don’t let Navy’s bye week ruin your fun. Two games (okay, probably just one) of service academy football leaves you will plenty of opportunity. I personally guarantee every single one of these picks will hit. And if they don’t, well, you won’t know where to find me and I’ll probably never be allowed to write one of these again.